Somalia raid reopens debate on Maghreb security, economic co-operation

2009-09-18

Following the killing in Somalia of alleged Al Qaeda leader Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan, Maghreb analysts are re-examining the stakes of failing to halt the spread of terrorism.

Siham Ali in Rabat, Jamel Arfaoui in Tunisia and Safa Salah Eddine in Algiers contributed to this report — 18/09/09

[MOHAMED DAHIR/AFP/Getty Images] Members of the Shabab terrorist group fire on government troops in Somalia, where this week's killing of an accused al-Qaeda leader spurred concerns about curbing extremism in Africa.

A raid this week that killed an accused Al Qaeda leader in Somalia has underscored the need to prevent terrorism from taking hold in Africa and spreading to the Maghreb, according to regional analysts who stressed the importance of boosting regional and international co-operation around security and economic development.

The raid, which came shortly after the African Union (AU)'s Tripoli Declaration advocated tangible measures to encourage peace, security and stability on the continent, affirms the need for the union to take concrete steps to deal with the rise of terrorism in Somalia, the analysts said.

In a helicopter-borne operation in southern Somalia, US commandos on Monday (September 14th) reportedly killed Saleh Ali Saleh Nabhan, an alleged ringleader of the East African cell of Al Qaeda. The US government has not publicly acknowledged a role in the strike.

Nabhan is believed to have been living since 2002 in Somalia, to which he fled after helping to carry out a bombing at a resort in his native Kenya, along with a failed attempt to shoot down an Israeli charter flight. He also allegedly helped mastermind the 1998 bombings of US embassies in Kenya and Tanzania that killed over 220 people.

The strike also killed six members of the Shabab terrorist organization, which is fighting to replace Somalia's government with a fundamentalist Taliban-style regime. Nabhan is believed to have helped deepen the Shabab-Al Qaeda ties and bring foreign fighters to Somalia.

Experts in the Maghreb voiced concerns about the Somalian crisis' implications for security in Africa and the region, particularly in the wake of a senior Shabab commander's call for foreign fighters worldwide to come and join their attacks on the Mogadishu government. Also raising concerns were Shabab-linked suicide bombings on Thursday (September 17th) targeting the AU base in Somalia's capital; over 20 people died in the attacks.

"The African Union is too weak and can't deal with the threat posed by Al Qaeda," Taj Eddine El Husseini, a Moroccan lecturer in international relations, told Magharebia. "In Africa, Libyan President Muammar Kadhafi is trying to set up a few initiatives. But there is a great difference between words and reality."

"The concept of globalisation needs to be considered these days," added Husseini. "So the Maghreb can't remain untouched …[E]ven though Morocco is not a member of the AU, it's affected by what happens on the other side of its borders, particularly in the Sahel region."

According to Moroccan MP Lahcen Daoudi, the events in Somalia must encourage Western countries to reinforce the capacity of African states to fight terrorism.

"The AU alone can't take control of the situation, because the continent is poor," said Daoudi. "The union has to be helped to find a way out of the problems springing up everywhere, including armed conflict and extremism."

"First, you have to tackle the economic and social roots of the trouble to contain the situation, because conflicts could spread to affect other countries that are calm at present," added the parliamentarian.

"The danger of terrorism persists and continues to weigh heavily on the Maghreb region, particularly the Sahel, where organised crime and terrorism are rife," said Fouad Madihi, a Moroccan lecturer in politics. "The Maghreb countries have to join forces to fight this scourge, which prays on all of them without exception, because [terrorism] finds that a number of African states that are fragile and easy to infiltrate offer a fertile breeding ground."

"The Tripoli Declaration acknowledged the situation," added Madihi. "Now, the recommendations need to be turned into concrete measures."

Madihi said that African heads of state and leaders had committed themselves to bringing peace to the continent.

"Thus, concerning Somalia, for example, it has been decided to deploy a number of battalions by the end of 2009, to increase the forces involved in the AU mission to the maximum allowed level," added the lecturer.

About 5,000 Burundian and Ugandan troops are stationed in Mogadishu as part of the AU peacekeeping mission. The troops are mandated to protect key sites in the capital, including the presidential palace, airstrip, and seaport. Still, dozens of people are killed in Somalia every day as a result of the civil war between radical Islamist groups and the government.

Meanwhile, civilians who fall afoul of the Shabab-enforced justice system are suffering human rights violations, as was the case with a 13-year-old girl who was stoned to death last October 27th for the "crime" of being raped.

"The situation in Somalia will have repercussions in the countries of North Africa," an Algerian military source, who wished to remain anonymous, told Magharebia. The source called the military intervention by the AU "more than essential".

With regard to containing the instability, Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, speaking at the August 31st AU summit that produced the Tripoli Declaration, called on African leaders to address the security crisis in Somalia and Darfur. He also called for war on arms trafficking and terrorism, "which are feeding the row in Somalia, and whose destabilising impact is felt in other countries in the Horn of Africa and elsewhere".

Despite such appeals, not all analysts are convinced that extremism can easily take root in the Maghreb's countries.

"We don't have any feeling that the North African governments are worried about the extremist Islamic movements," Hmida ben Romdhane, a Tunisian expert in international affairs, told Magharebia in a statement. "I think that this is because although Al Qaeda can be at the heart of events for years, it is still weak as compared to, for example, the Armed Islamic Group of Algeria (GIA) in the 1990s."

"The tight siege of [terrorist groups'] members in Tunisia and Algeria is one of the reasons behind their migration to Mali or Niger, where it is difficult for them to boost their fighting capabilities," said the Tunisian expert. "They even risk sinking in the sand there, especially with the increasing security co-operation between Algeria and its southern neighbours."

"The Maghreb's countries are capable of facing the terrorist risk for two reasons," added Ben Romdhane. "The first is that they have developed security coordination, and the second is represented in the 10 years of terror created in the hearts of Algerians by the GIA, something that makes it unlikely for any terrorist organization whose only program is to plant explosives among innocent civilians to gain any popular sympathy in the Maghreb region."

The best proof of this lack of sympathy, according to Ben Romdhane, is the formation of watch committees consisting of Algerian civilians to deal with terrorism.

"The Tripoli Declaration represented a positive step in its political and moral dimensions," said Tunisian political analyst Chawki Ben Salem. "From the political angle, the declaration represents a necessary start to impart legal legitimacy to any security or diplomatic move to stop conflicts and protect the victims of violence and wars in more than one spot."

Ben Salem said that from the moral point of view, the declaration "reflects informed awareness on the part of the leaders of the continent that the future of African nations is still dependent on their unification and activation of partnership mechanisms among themselves."

"The challenge of development in the continent is ongoing, with the rising rate of poverty and the failure of education, health and social systems in several countries," he added. "This has turned some regions across the continent into hotspots of tension and a rear base for extremist religious organizations, especially AQIM and other associated organizations."

"The AU doesn't have the financial means or political authority through which it can stand in the face of all forms of extremism and intolerance," said Nasereddine Ben Hdid, an expert on Maghreb affairs. "[T]hese countries don't have a common project to serve as an example for Somalis."

"We also shouldn't forget that putting an end to intolerance should be made through building the rule of law and institutions that can achieve economic prosperity and social justice," added the expert.